If you've thought about buying a home in Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch over the past few years, you may have run into two frustrations: asking prices that kept climbing, and too few homes to choose from.

Both sticking points are letting up this summer across much of the country, with lower asking prices and more homes for sale. Here in the Hill Country, that shift matters — Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch have run tight for buyers for a while now. Let's look at the trends, and what they mean for your search in 78006 and 78015.

Sellers Are Pricing To Attract Buyers

According to Realtor.com, the national median asking price was $430,000 in June, nearly $11,000 under what it was the year before (see graph below):

That's the eighth month in a row that the typical asking price has dipped below where it was the previous year, per that same Realtor.com report.

And while falling asking prices can sound worrying, this isn't a sign of an impending crash — we're talking about what sellers are asking, not what homes are actually selling for. It's a sign that today's sellers, including many here in the Hill Country, are meeting the market where it is and pricing to draw buyers in from the start rather than listing high and cutting later. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at Realtor.com, notes that buyers are responding to that smarter pricing with real offers, which is exactly what a healthy, functioning market looks like.

Asking prices were never going to climb forever — now they're settling closer to what buyers can actually pay. For Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, that means sellers are recalibrating expectations, and buyers are finally getting some breathing room.

More Homes Are Available Now

If you've spent the past few years watching Hill Country homes disappear before you could even schedule a tour, this is for you.

Supply is starting to catch up nationally. According to Realtor.com, the number of homes listed for sale in June was the highest June number we've seen in three years (see graph below):

This means more options for you and less competition for each one — including on that Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch acreage lot you've had your eye on.

Now, supply is not back to normal everywhere, including much of the Hill Country. We're still down from where things stood back in 2017–2019. But in many areas, it's better than it's been in a while. Here's how that helps you.

You don't have to rush an offer just to stay in the running, and you have better odds of finding and landing the right home — not just the one that happens to be available. Plus, you'll have more room to negotiate, so you're searching from a stronger position than buyers had even a year ago.

Why This Is Encouraging if You're Buying Your First Home

For first-time buyers looking for lower-priced homes, these trends line up especially well. Mischa Fisher, Chief Economist at Zillow, points out that it's the lower price tiers seeing both the most price softening and the strongest growth in new listings — the first time that's happened since 2022.

So whether you're searching for your first place in Fair Oaks Ranch or your next move-up home in Boerne, there's a little more to choose from and a little more give on price right now.

Bottom Line

If a tight budget or a thin selection has kept you from buying a home in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Hill Country, now might be the time to restart your search.

Ready to see what's available here? Let's connect.

Charley Wasson is a full-time REALTOR® with Sunflower Real Estate specializing in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the greater Texas Hill Country — with over 300 documented MLS transactions and more than $121 million in closed sales, a four-time Platinum Top 50 San Antonio REALTOR® honor, and a career 98% customer satisfaction score. He's the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch real estate expert.

Quick gut reaction. Which investment do Americans trust more than stocks, gold, savings accounts, and bonds? The answer hasn't changed in 14 years.

It's real estate. And that holds especially true right here in the Hill Country. Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch have seen sustained demand for years, and new national data shows people aren't just saying homeownership is a smart move — they're feeling better about it than they have in years. Let's dig into why, and what it means for you if you're thinking about buying or selling in 78006 or 78015.

Real Estate Takes the Top Spot — Again

Every year, Gallup asks Americans to name the best long-term investment. And for the 14th year in a row, real estate came out on top (see graph below):

That's not a fluke or a hot streak — that's 14 straight years of real estate beating out stocks, gold, and everything else.

Think about everything that's happened in that stretch: rising rates, market swings, election years. Through all of it, buyers kept choosing real estate — and here in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, that shows up in how consistently our Hill Country lots and acreage properties hold and build value. Michelle Egan, Head of Credit Solutions, Impact Finance at JPMorgan Chase, points out that a home is widely seen as one of the more dependable paths to building wealth, since it doubles as both shelter and an appreciating asset that builds equity over time (source).

Now, you may have seen chatter online about home prices falling and wondered if that changes the math here. It really shouldn't. Nationally, home prices are still rising — just at a slower pace than a few years ago. Locally, Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch continue to benefit from strong relocation demand into the Hill Country, and any local softening tends to be minor compared to the appreciation these communities have seen over the past 5 years. Generally speaking, home prices almost always rise over time. As long as you plan to put down roots here for a good stretch, you should still have real opportunity to build equity.

More People Say Buying Beats Renting

And while homeownership has been seen as worthwhile for years now, something interesting is happening — it may be gaining even more ground.

According to Bank of America's latest Homebuyer Insights Report, 53% of people now say it's better to buy a home than to rent or move in with family. That's the first time buying has taken the lead since 2023 (see graph below):

In that same report, a few other signals stand out:

• 90% of people say a home is a valuable investment, up from 79% just last year.

• 94% say owning a home provides stability, up from 83% the year prior.

Those are big jumps in a short window — and for Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch families, that lines up with what I hear every week from buyers relocating into the Hill Country for exactly that sense of stability and roots.

It's About More Than Money

Affordability is still tight in places, and some markets remain hard to break into — but that hasn't changed what people feel about homeownership as a goal, because it was never just a financial decision. It's a lifestyle choice. And in the Hill Country, that lifestyle is a big part of the draw: two-acre lots, mature oaks, room for a shop or a pool, and small-town roots minutes from San Antonio.

A home pays you back in ways stocks never could. Sheharyar Bokhari, Principal Economist at Redfin, frames it well — for most owners, a home becomes far more than shelter; it's a reflection of who they are, a place to put down roots and build a life uniquely their own.

You can't get that from a brokerage account. A home is the one investment that grows your wealth and gives you a place to build your life. In Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, that's not just a talking point — it's the whole reason people move here.

Bottom Line

For 14 years straight, Americans have called real estate the best long-term investment — and here in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, that confidence shows up in real demand and real equity growth. If you've been weighing whether buying or selling is worth it, let's connect and talk through what that first step could look like for you.

Charley Wasson is a full-time REALTOR® with Sunflower Real Estate specializing in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the greater Texas Hill Country — with over 300 documented MLS transactions and more than $121 million in closed sales, a four-time Platinum Top 50 San Antonio REALTOR® honor, and a career 98% customer satisfaction score. He's the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch real estate expert.

That Hill Country Listing That's Been Sitting Could Be Your Best Shot at a Deal

Scroll through listings around Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or anywhere else in the Hill Country and you'll spot them: homes that have been sitting on the market for two months. Three. Sometimes longer.

Most buyers scroll right past these, assuming something must be wrong with the house. But that instinct can cost you, because the longer a Hill Country property sits, the more motivated that seller usually gets.

Where Hill Country Buyers Are Finding Better Deals

If affordability is the one thing standing between you and a property out here, this strategy is worth trying: start your search with the listings that have sat longest. That's usually where the negotiating room shows up.

The data backs this up. Numbers from Realtor.com show a clear link between time on market and final sale price (see graph below):

The longer a home lingers, the more often a price drop follows. On acreage and custom-build properties — which make up so much of our Hill Country inventory — that gap can run even wider than the national average, simply because these homes take longer to sell than a typical subdivision listing.

There's more "stale" inventory sitting on the market right now than at any point in recent memory, according to Redfin. Out here, that means there are real acreage properties — with the views, the space, and the privacy buyers want — that have just been overlooked. Ask me to sort your search results oldest to newest. The right property might already be sitting there, just further down the list than you'd expect.

Lingering Doesn't Always Mean Something's Wrong

Say a listing like that catches your eye. You start wondering why it's still on the market. Out here, the reason is rarely the house itself. More often it comes down to:

• An asking price that didn't account for acreage, septic, or water-well realities from day one

• Listing photos that don't do a 5-, 10-, or 20-acre property justice online

• New construction or competing inventory in growth corridors like Fair Oaks Ranch pulling buyer attention elsewhere

None of that is a dealbreaker. If there's a real issue — foundation, septic, well capacity — a thorough inspection will surface it, and that becomes a negotiating point. Not a reason to walk away.

How to Turn a Lingering Listing into a Win

Two levers matter most when a Hill Country property has been sitting.

The first is price. We'll pull comparable closed sales — weighing lot size, water source, and outbuildings, since those move price out here more than they do in a standard subdivision — and build your offer around that.

The second is concessions. If a seller won't budge much on price, they may still cover closing costs, fund repair credits, or buy down your rate, especially after carrying a property through several showings with no offer. According to USA Today, these are the two main levers buyers have right now.

Knowing which Hill Country listings are genuine opportunities — and which ones are sitting for good reason — takes someone tracking this market closely.

Bottom Line

A home sitting on the market in Boerne or across the Hill Country isn't a red flag on its own. Right now, it might be exactly where your best opportunity is hiding.

For help deciding which lingering Hill Country listings are worth a second look, let's connect.

Charley | Sunflower Real Estate — Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch & the Texas Hill Country

210-478-8555  |  myboernehome.com

300+ closed transactions, $121M+ in Hill Country sales — the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne real estate expert.

Remember a few years back when sellers held all the power in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, and buyers were stuck offering way over asking or waiving inspections just to get a chance at a home? Across San Antonio and much of the Hill Country, those days are largely behind us.

While conditions still vary block by block, more of the greater San Antonio area is slowly shifting to favor buyers, and the market is starting to look a lot more like a two-way street again.

And that balance is something we haven't had in a while.

Whether you're buying or selling in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or anywhere across the Hill Country, here's what you need to know about what's changing and what it means for your move.

The Most Buyer-Friendly Market in Years

The national data tells an interesting story right now, and it's playing out close to home in San Antonio too. According to Realtor.com:

"The national housing market is balanced but gradually loosening as the cycle moves in a more buyer-friendly direction . . ."

That's because, over the past few years, more and more metros — San Antonio included — have been flipping back to more buyer-friendly terms as inventory's grown. And when you zoom in on the latest Realtor.com data for the top 50 metro markets over time, the trend becomes really clear (see graph below).

Back in 2021, almost all major metros were seller's markets. By the end of 2025, only 1 in 3 still favored sellers. That's an obvious shift — and one Boerne and Hill Country buyers and sellers are feeling firsthand.

And that changes how the market is going to feel for everyone here in the Hill Country. Sellers shouldn't still expect 2021 conditions, but neither should buyers walk in expecting to call all the shots. At least, not generally speaking.

It's Not the Same Story Everywhere — Even Within San Antonio

That said, who has the power ultimately depends on where you live, and that's especially true across our region. While San Antonio overall has leaned more buyer-friendly lately, there are still pockets of the Hill Country — Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch among them — where demand remains strong.

It really comes down to how much housing supply and demand there is in your specific area. And that varies enormously even within Comal and Kendall counties.

Sun Belt cities like Austin, Tampa, and San Antonio saw major building booms in recent years, giving buyers more options and more negotiating room in many neighborhoods. Meanwhile, cities in the Northeast and Midwest – think Rochester, Hartford, and Buffalo – didn't see that same wave, so inventory stayed tight and competition stayed fierce. As Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Analyst at Bankrate, explains:

“The formerly hot Sun Belt markets have cooled, while the Northeast and Midwest have stayed hot. The big driver here is construction activity. The softest markets now [have] experienced big booms that spurred new building, and that has led to a large supply of new and existing homes on the market in those places.”

That said, while San Antonio proper has seen plenty of new construction, the Hill Country — with its larger lots, limited land, and stricter zoning — hasn't been built out at the same pace. That's part of why Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch can still feel tighter than the broader metro numbers suggest.

Practical Advice for Your Move

To find out who has the power in your specific Hill Country neighborhood, talk to a local agent. Because knowing what's happening on your street — not just across San Antonio as a whole — is going to be the key to setting the right strategy for your move.

If the market is working in your favor, great. Lean in and use it to your benefit. But if it's not, all hope isn't lost. Your agent can help you figure out how to approach any market.

Here's some practical advice if there's a mismatch between your goal and local market conditions.

If you're buying in a seller's market (like parts of Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch):

• Get pre-approved before you start shopping. It shows sellers you're serious.

• Be ready to act fast when the right home hits the market.

• Consider offering a quick closing date or flexible terms.

• Work closely with your agent to craft a competitive offer.

If you're selling in a buyer's market (more common across greater San Antonio right now):

• Price it right from day one. Overpricing will cost you time and money.

• Focus on curb appeal and staging to stand out in areas with more inventory.

• Be open to offering incentives, like covering closing costs or a home warranty.

• Expect buyers to negotiate and be ready to be flexible.

Bottom Line

Right now, local markets — even within Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the surrounding Hill Country — are moving in different directions block by block. And your strategy as a buyer or seller should reflect your specific neighborhood, not just the headlines.

Want to know which way the market is leaning on your street and what that means for your move? Let's connect.

Charley Wasson is a full-time REALTOR® with Sunflower Real Estate, specializing in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the Texas Hill Country. With over 300 MLS transactions and $121M+ in closed volume, he's the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne real estate expert. Reach him at myboernehome.com or 210-478-8555.

A few years ago, sellers in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch TX could get away with saying "no" to just about everything.

No repairs.

No concessions.

No negotiation.

If buyers wanted the house, they pretty much had to take it on the seller's terms. But now that inventory’s grown, negotiations are becoming a normal part of the process again in the Boerne real estate market.

That's why one of the most important things sellers need to understand right now is this:

The goal isn't to “win” every negotiation.

Sometimes, it’s worth meeting buyers where they are to get a deal done, fast. One example? Helping with a buyer's closing costs.

Let’s break that down, so you know what to expect if it comes up in your sale.

What Are Buyer Closing Costs?

Closing costs are the extra expenses buyers pay on top of their down payment when they purchase a home. Freddie Mac gives some examples:

• Loan origination fees

• Appraisal and inspection costs

• Title and attorney fees

• Survey fees and more

Typically, buyer closing costs range from about 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. So, on the typical $400,000 home, that could mean anywhere from $8,000 to $20,000 out of pocket.

And in today’s affordability-challenged market, that upfront cash can be a major hurdle for some Boerne buyers – even if they can comfortably afford the monthly mortgage payment itself. 

That’s why more people are asking sellers for help.

And More Boerne Sellers Are Saying “Yes”

According to the latest data from Zillow, 67% of sellers reported paying some or all of the buyer’s closing costs in 2025 (see chart below):

Now, that doesn't mean every seller is doing it. And it definitely doesn't mean every seller should. But it does show how common concessions have become as the market has shifted. And that’s important for you to know.

When Paying Closing Costs May Make Sense

This is where many sellers get stuck. They hear "help with closing costs" and immediately think: "Why should I pay for their expenses?"

But that's not always the right way to look at it. You’ve got to consider who has the leverage in today’s market.

Redfin data shows there are more sellers than buyers active today. And that shifts the market dynamics (see graph below):

That doesn't mean every market favors buyers. Far from it. In some areas, homes are still selling quickly and sellers have plenty of leverage. But in others, buyers have more room to negotiate than they've had in years.

That's why local market conditions matter so much when you make your decision.

For example, helping with closing costs may be worth considering if:

• There are a lot of homes for sale in your Boerne neighborhood

• Your house has been sitting on the market longer than expected

• You’ve had showings, but no offers

• You’re motivated to move quickly

• Or you’re trying to keep a deal together during negotiations

After all, if it’s the thing that helps bring a serious buyer across the finish line, it could be well worth it.

Other Concessions You Could Offer Instead

Just remember, being flexible doesn’t mean saying “yes” to every request.  It means understanding which compromises actually help you accomplish your goals. Because there are always alternatives.

Redfin suggests considering other concessions if you’re not interested in helping with closing costs, like:

• A home warranty

• Repair credits

• Flexible closing dates, or

• Leave behind appliances or furniture

The right answer depends on what buyers in your market are asking for and what matters most to you. That's exactly why working with an experienced local agent is so important.

Bottom Line

The sellers having the most success in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch today are the ones who understand the market has changed and are adapting to meet it where it is.

Sometimes that means negotiating on closing costs. Sometimes it means offering something else. The key is knowing which concessions are worth it for our local market.

If you’re wondering what's normal in our area, what's worth negotiating, and where it makes sense to stand firm, let’s connect.

About the Author:

Charley Wasson is a full-time real estate professional specializing in the Boerne, Texas and Fair Oaks Ranch, Texas markets — helping buyers and sellers navigate Hill Country properties with the depth of knowledge that only comes from living and working in the community.

Named to the Platinum Top 50 of San Antonio Realtors, and a 4 time award winner, Charley brings nearly a decade of dedicated real estate experience and a track record that speaks for itself: over 300 documented MLS sales and more than $121 million in property sold across the Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch TX, and greater Hill Country area. That volume of closed transactions isn't just a number — it means Charley Wasson has navigated virtually every scenario a Hill Country buyer or seller is likely to face.

Before becoming a Realtor, Charley served as a Regional Sales Manager for one of San Antonio's largest home builders, overseeing hundreds of transactions across the region. That builder-side background gives Charley the ability to anticipate complications and resolve them before they become a client's problem.

For buyers relocating to the Texas Hill Country or searching for a home in Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch, Charley Wasson offers a rare combination: hyper-local market knowledge, deep transaction experience, and advanced training in negotiation and closing strategy. For sellers, that translates to listings that are priced right, marketed with precision, and guided to the closing table on time — without surprises.

Charley has earned 27 Golden Nail builder awards for exceeding customer expectations, with a career 98% customer satisfaction score — recognition that reflects a consistent standard of service across hundreds of real transactions with real clients.

Real estate in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch isn't just a business — it's home. Charley is an active member of St. Peter the Apostle Catholic Church and the Boerne Knights of Columbus, with deep roots in a community that go well beyond any single transaction.

If you're buying or selling a Hill Country property in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Comal County area, Charley Wasson is the full-time, proven specialist you want in your corner.

A lot of buyers and sellers in the Texas Hill Country are telling themselves the same thing: "Maybe I'll just wait until later this year once things settle down."

While that sounds reasonable, there's something worth knowing before you make that call. Rates aren't expected to change much, so if rate relief is the main reason you're holding off, that strategy may not pay off. And in a market like Boerne, timing matters — there are real opportunities right now that tend to fade once summer ends.

Historically, summer is one of the strongest seasons of the year for both buyers and sellers. If you delay until fall or winter, some of those advantages may already be behind you.

Buyers: Fresh Inventory Is Your Real Summer Advantage in Boerne

One of the biggest frustrations buyers in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch have faced over the past few years is the lack of affordable options in the right neighborhoods. Sound familiar?

• You find a home you love in 78006 or 78015, but it's over budget.

• You find something affordable, but it's not the right fit.

• Or nothing compelling hits MLS for weeks.

Summer historically helps with that — and the data backs it up.

Looking at data from the last few years, summer months consistently bring more sellers into the market than later in the year. And that gives buyers in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the surrounding Hill Country communities a real window of fresh choices.

According to Realtor.com, a typical summer month sees about 32% more freshly listed homes than the average month from September through December.

That matters a lot in a tight market like Boerne, where the right home on the right street in Cordillera Ranch, Champion Heights, or the Hill Country Ranch communities doesn't come available every week.

More fresh listings mean a better chance of finding the property where the price, location, and layout actually line up. Because all it really takes is one home to completely change your search — and summer gives you more chances for that to happen.

But keep in mind, this seasonal window doesn't stay open forever. Families who planned to move before the next school year at Boerne ISD are already making those decisions now, or they'll be locked in soon. Many homeowners who planned to sell this year have already listed or are about to. Once summer ends, new listing activity in the Hill Country consistently slows.

Waiting until fall doesn't mean more options. Recent history suggests it may mean fewer.

Sellers: Boerne Homes Typically Sell for More in the Summer

If you're thinking of selling, you may be hesitating because you've seen headlines about price cuts and a more balanced market. Those headlines don't tell the full story — and they especially don't reflect the nuance of the Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch market.

Even as conditions normalize nationally, seasonality still works in your favor right here.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), homes sold during a summer month typically sell for about 4% more than homes sold during an average month from September through December:

The reason is straightforward: summer buyers are motivated. They're trying to get settled before school starts at Boerne ISD. They have PTO lined up for moving and touring homes. That built-in urgency tends to translate into stronger, cleaner offers.

Now — that doesn't mean you should list 4% above market value. That would actually be a mistake in today's market.

What it does mean is that if you're going to sell in 2026, summer gives you a timing edge that fall and winter typically don't. Based on typical seasonality, you may net more for your Boerne home now than you would by waiting — simply because there are more motivated buyers active in the market today.

And if you're considering a move anyway, that's worth factoring in.

Bottom Line

Could waiting until later this year work out? Sure — every situation is different. But before you put your move on hold, it's worth understanding what you may be giving up.

If a move is on your radar — whether you're upsizing to the Hill Country acreage you've been eyeing, rightsizing in Boerne proper, or finally making that relocation happen — let's connect and talk through what makes the most sense for your goals. Depending on your priorities, this summer could be your moment.

Charley Wasson is a full-time REALTOR® with Sunflower Real Estate, specializing in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the Texas Hill Country. With over 300 MLS transactions and $121M+ in closed volume, he's the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne real estate expert. Reach him at myboernehome.com or 210-478-8555.

SHOP THE LOWEST PRICED HOMES IN BOERNE HERE

If the housing market feels confusing right now, you're not alone — and that's true whether you're watching things from a home in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or anywhere along the Hill Country corridor.

Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven't picked up like expected. And a lot of buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or more affordable.

SHOP HOMES IN BOERNE WITH A POOL HERE

Here's the honest answer: a lot changed over the first half of this year — and understanding why matters if you're planning a move in the Hill Country.

Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound. The Boerne market was positioned to benefit directly from that momentum.

But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off — locally and nationally.

That's why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

So what does this actually mean if you're buying or selling in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Hill Country? Let's break it down.

SHOP HOMES IN BOERNE WITH AT LEAST ONE ACRE OF LAND

Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated

While just about everyone — including Hill Country buyers — wants mortgage rates back in the upper 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, experts don't think that's likely to happen in 2026.

Forecasts have been updated from the low 6s originally projected. Most industry organizations now expect rates to hold in roughly the mid 6s for the remainder of the year. The silver lining: that's still lower than where rates stood a year ago.

If the overseas conflict resolves or inflation cools, this could shift. But for now, if you're waiting for dramatically lower rates before making a move in Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch, it may not pay off the way you're hoping.

Existing Home Sales Revised Lower — But the Hill Country Tells Its Own Story

Nationally, experts who expected 4.5 million home sales this year have revised that figure down to around 4.2 million. Buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains a challenge — and that's showing up in the pace of the Boerne market too.

But here's the important nuance: the Hill Country has consistently outperformed national trends when it comes to demand. People aren't moving here because conditions are perfect. They're moving here because of the schools, the lifestyle, the community, and the quality of life that Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch offer — and those factors don't disappear when mortgage rates tick up.

Even with the revised forecast, we're still expected to sell more homes nationally than last year. And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, puts it:

"There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market."

Pending home sales have already been improving month-over-month despite higher rates — a signal that buyers are starting to engage again. If you can afford to buy in today's market, it's worth considering seriously. When that pent-up demand releases, you'll be competing against more buyers for the same Hill Country inventory.

New Home Sales Also Slowed — Which May Benefit Boerne Buyers

Builders entered 2026 expecting a strong year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales topping 700k nationally. Now economists expect that number to come in just shy of that mark.

For buyers in the Boerne area — where new construction has been a significant part of the market — this is actually an opportunity. Builders who need to move inventory are more motivated to negotiate. That means incentives, rate buydowns, closing cost contributions, and pricing flexibility that simply weren't available during the frenzy years. I've been working these conversations directly with builders on behalf of my clients — and the leverage is real right now.

Home Prices in the Hill Country Are Still Expected to Hold

This may be the most important takeaway in the entire forecast: even with slower sales activity, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward. They still expect prices to rise nationally in 2026.

Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the supply of available homes remains limited overall. That imbalance is supporting prices even in a slower market — and that dynamic is especially pronounced in desirable Hill Country communities like Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, where land constraints and strong in-migration continue to put a floor under values.

If you're a seller, that's reassuring news. If you're a buyer who's waiting for prices to fall — the data doesn't support that outcome. Steady, measured growth is the more likely path forward.

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Bottom Line

The housing market hasn't rebounded as quickly as anyone hoped going into 2026. But it hasn't stalled either — and in the Hill Country, the fundamentals that drive demand here are stronger than the national headlines suggest.

Higher inflation and lingering uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts. But when those conditions settle, the experts expect momentum to return — and Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch will be well positioned when it does.

Don't read the revised forecasts as a sign of trouble. Read them as an honest picture of a market navigating real headwinds — one that still has real opportunity for buyers and sellers who move thoughtfully.

If you're buying or selling in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Hill Country communities — including Cordillera Ranch, Comfort, Kendall County, and the Boerne ISD corridor — you want someone who knows this market from the inside out. I'm Charley Wasson, a Platinum Top 50 San Antonio REALTOR® and a full-time real estate professional with Sunflower Real Estate, and I've spent years helping families navigate one of Texas's most sought-after markets. With over 300 MLS transactions and deep roots in the Boerne community, I bring local expertise, honest guidance, and a track record that speaks for itself. Whether you're relocating from San Antonio, upsizing into the Hill Country lifestyle, or ready to sell and move on to your next chapter, I'm the agent locals trust — and the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne real estate expert. You can learn more or get in touch at myboernehome.com.

Maybe you've told yourself you're going to wait. Wait for mortgage rates to come down. Wait for prices to soften. Wait for the market to feel a little less uncertain before you make a move in the Hill Country.

And honestly? A lot of people in Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch feel exactly that way right now. But here's what some of them are starting to realize.

Waiting doesn't fix the thing that made you want to move in the first place.

Your family still needs more room. Your empty nest still feels too quiet now that the kids are gone.

Your parents or grandparents still need you closer.

You just got married... or divorced.

You've been dreaming about retiring somewhere with a little more land, a little more sky, and a lot less traffic.

Eventually, life reaches a point where waiting feels harder than moving.

That's why some buyers are still making moves in the Hill Country right now — not because conditions are perfect, but because the life changes behind their move never really went away.

And maybe that's exactly where you are. If so, you're not alone.

The Real Reasons People Move

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows 1 in 5 buyers last year said they felt they had to purchase a home at that time, no matter what the market was doing.

That's worth sitting with for a second. The dollars and cents of your move absolutely have to make sense. But major life changes happen whether mortgage rates are at 5% or 7%, whether inventory is tight or opening up. The Hill Country isn't immune to that reality — and neither is your timeline.

NAR reports that roughly 22.5 million people experience major life changes in a typical two-year span (see graph below):

Marriages. Divorces. New jobs. Growing families. Empty nests. Retirements. These are exactly the kinds of events that change how much space you need, where you want to live, and what kind of lifestyle makes sense for this next chapter. Chen Zhao, Head of Economics Research at Redfin, put it well:

"Life doesn't stand still — people get new jobs, grow their families, downsize after retirement, or simply want to live in a different neighborhood."

For a lot of Hill Country buyers, that different neighborhood is Boerne. Or Fair Oaks Ranch. Or a quiet acreage lot somewhere along the Guadalupe River corridor. The market doesn't change what's pulling them here — it just changes how we approach the transaction.

There May Be More Opportunity in the Hill Country Than You Think

Affordability is still a real challenge. No point pretending otherwise. But the landscape for buyers in the Boerne area has shifted meaningfully.

The number of homes for sale has been growing for four straight years (see graph below). More inventory means more choices — and in some cases, more room to negotiate than buyers had during the frenzy of 2021 and 2022.

That doesn't mean every move is easy right now. But it does mean buyers who engage the market thoughtfully — with the right agent and the right strategy — are finding ways to make it work. So before you keep waiting, it might be worth asking yourself not just:

"What's the market doing?"

But also: "Can I keep living where I am and honestly make it work?"

If the answer to that second question is no, it's probably time to have a real conversation about what your options look like today. With more homes available in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, and the surrounding Hill Country communities than we've seen in years, there's a better chance than you might think of finding something that fits both your life and your budget.

Bottom Line

Life changes. Priorities shift. Families grow and then shrink. Careers evolve. And at some point, the house you're in stops fitting the life you're living — whether the market cooperates or not.

If that's been weighing on you, let's talk through what your options could realistically look like right now in the Hill Country. No pressure. Just an honest conversation.

Life can't always wait for perfect market conditions. And in Boerne, the right home has a way of not waiting either.

If you're buying or selling in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Hill Country communities — including Cordillera Ranch, Comfort, Kendall County, and the Boerne ISD corridor — you want someone who knows this market from the inside out. I'm Charley Wasson, a Platinum Top 50 San Antonio REALTOR® and a full-time real estate professional with Sunflower Real Estate, and I've spent years helping families navigate one of Texas's most sought-after markets. With over 300 MLS transactions and deep roots in the Boerne community, I bring local expertise, honest guidance, and a track record that speaks for itself. Whether you're relocating from San Antonio, upsizing into the Hill Country lifestyle, or ready to sell and move on to your next chapter, I'm the agent locals trust — and the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne real estate expert. You can learn more or get in touch at myboernehome.com.