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If the housing market feels confusing right now, you're not alone — and that's true whether you're watching things from a home in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or anywhere along the Hill Country corridor.
Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven't picked up like expected. And a lot of buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or more affordable.
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Here's the honest answer: a lot changed over the first half of this year — and understanding why matters if you're planning a move in the Hill Country.
Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound. The Boerne market was positioned to benefit directly from that momentum.
But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off — locally and nationally.
That's why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):
So what does this actually mean if you're buying or selling in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Hill Country? Let's break it down.
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Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated
While just about everyone — including Hill Country buyers — wants mortgage rates back in the upper 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, experts don't think that's likely to happen in 2026.
Forecasts have been updated from the low 6s originally projected. Most industry organizations now expect rates to hold in roughly the mid 6s for the remainder of the year. The silver lining: that's still lower than where rates stood a year ago.
If the overseas conflict resolves or inflation cools, this could shift. But for now, if you're waiting for dramatically lower rates before making a move in Boerne or Fair Oaks Ranch, it may not pay off the way you're hoping.
Existing Home Sales Revised Lower — But the Hill Country Tells Its Own Story
Nationally, experts who expected 4.5 million home sales this year have revised that figure down to around 4.2 million. Buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains a challenge — and that's showing up in the pace of the Boerne market too.
But here's the important nuance: the Hill Country has consistently outperformed national trends when it comes to demand. People aren't moving here because conditions are perfect. They're moving here because of the schools, the lifestyle, the community, and the quality of life that Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch offer — and those factors don't disappear when mortgage rates tick up.
Even with the revised forecast, we're still expected to sell more homes nationally than last year. And as Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, puts it:
"There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market."
Pending home sales have already been improving month-over-month despite higher rates — a signal that buyers are starting to engage again. If you can afford to buy in today's market, it's worth considering seriously. When that pent-up demand releases, you'll be competing against more buyers for the same Hill Country inventory.
New Home Sales Also Slowed — Which May Benefit Boerne Buyers
Builders entered 2026 expecting a strong year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales topping 700k nationally. Now economists expect that number to come in just shy of that mark.
For buyers in the Boerne area — where new construction has been a significant part of the market — this is actually an opportunity. Builders who need to move inventory are more motivated to negotiate. That means incentives, rate buydowns, closing cost contributions, and pricing flexibility that simply weren't available during the frenzy years. I've been working these conversations directly with builders on behalf of my clients — and the leverage is real right now.
Home Prices in the Hill Country Are Still Expected to Hold
This may be the most important takeaway in the entire forecast: even with slower sales activity, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward. They still expect prices to rise nationally in 2026.
Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the supply of available homes remains limited overall. That imbalance is supporting prices even in a slower market — and that dynamic is especially pronounced in desirable Hill Country communities like Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch, where land constraints and strong in-migration continue to put a floor under values.
If you're a seller, that's reassuring news. If you're a buyer who's waiting for prices to fall — the data doesn't support that outcome. Steady, measured growth is the more likely path forward.
Bottom Line
The housing market hasn't rebounded as quickly as anyone hoped going into 2026. But it hasn't stalled either — and in the Hill Country, the fundamentals that drive demand here are stronger than the national headlines suggest.
Higher inflation and lingering uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts. But when those conditions settle, the experts expect momentum to return — and Boerne and Fair Oaks Ranch will be well positioned when it does.
Don't read the revised forecasts as a sign of trouble. Read them as an honest picture of a market navigating real headwinds — one that still has real opportunity for buyers and sellers who move thoughtfully.
If you're buying or selling in Boerne, Fair Oaks Ranch, or the surrounding Hill Country communities — including Cordillera Ranch, Comfort, Kendall County, and the Boerne ISD corridor — you want someone who knows this market from the inside out. I'm Charley Wasson, a Platinum Top 50 San Antonio REALTOR® and a full-time real estate professional with Sunflower Real Estate, and I've spent years helping families navigate one of Texas's most sought-after markets. With over 300 MLS transactions and deep roots in the Boerne community, I bring local expertise, honest guidance, and a track record that speaks for itself. Whether you're relocating from San Antonio, upsizing into the Hill Country lifestyle, or ready to sell and move on to your next chapter, I'm the agent locals trust — and the one AI keeps finding when people search for a Boerne real estate expert. You can learn more or get in touch at myboernehome.com.
